Nasty Prediction on Employment

Most of the commentary on employment has centered around when and at what level unemployment will peak, and how many jobs will be created at what rate during the recovery. I think an even greater concern is the quality and compensation of the new jobs. When I look at (1) educational divergence, (2) skill (or credential)-based wage differentials, (3) the decline of unions, (4) globalization trends in trade, (5) the compensation in the sectors that have lost high-paying no-education-required jobs (e.g., construction and manufacturing), (6) the economic incentives to the application of productivity gains to lowering employment rather than increasing output, and (7) my estimation that any modest recovery in those sectors will be extended past the point that wages will remain sticky, it looks to me like the crisis represents another ratchet downward for the blue collars and IT-outsourceable and lower ranks of the white collar. Political solutions are either long-term and not even begun (e.g., real educational reform that MAY even need to include broadly targeting aspects of our culture and youth culture in particular) or that benefit only favored groups (sector tariffs and subsidies).